Women probably would stay loyal to Hillary but then McCain wouldn’t especially appeal to them over Obama. So her argument is obviously based around the loyalty of working class whites, core Democrat supporters. Hillary has played on her humble beginnings and race to reel in the support of this group. Against McCain the race appeal is gone and when the Republicans point out that she has spent about half her life with money, privilege and power, her ‘one of us’ status could be diminished. And McCain has real and genuine hero appeal through his long and distinguished military career. The hardships he suffered and overcame (imprisonment, solitary confinement and torture over many years), really strike home. This character building and ‘against all odds’ experience appeals to all voters but especially those who have hardships themselves. So yes, Obama might lose these votes, but so could Hillary. And to make it worse, the Clintons’ blatant and frequent use of the race card will haemorrhage her support with another core Democratic voting group, black people. They may not choose McCain over her, but would likely just stay away.

McCain has much less appeal to the Obama’s core support. Blacks, young people and educated liberals would come out strongly against McCain. And both McCain and Obama have strong appeal with independent, where Hillary does really badly.

My conclusion is that Hillary Clinton won’t win the Presidency even is she manages to knobble Barack Obama’s much more likely Democratic nomination. He core support is vulnerable to McCain. And her appeal to other groups is very much lower. Unlike Hillary, both John McCain and Barack Obama can move away from their core support and attract votes, especially amongst independents.

Hillary Clinton won’t win the Presidency even......

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