Sam Allardyce is no Alex Ferguson
When Alex Ferguson left Aberdeen Football Club for Manchester United, he went with 3 league titles (twice runner up), 4 Scottish FA Cups, 1 League Cup. A European Cup Winners Cup by beating Real Madrid in the final, and a UEFA Super Cup. He didn’t win these with Celtic or Rangers who had dominated the league title for the previous 15 years. Aberdeen FC are a smaller club in Scotland, who hadn’t won the league for 25 years, and haven’t again done so since he left.
Manchester United hadn’t won the league in 22 years before Alex took them over. In his 2nd season they finished runners up to Liverpool. It was in his 3rd season that the near sacking took place when they descended towards the relegation zone. Since he was in his 3rd year, the board and the fans had a very good idea how the club was improving –barring short term fluctuations in league positions. They knew how good he was in the transfer market, and about his tactical knowledge. With this information and by looking at his previous record, they thought he was worth sticking with. They didn’t achieve the subsequent success because they stuck with him, they achieved it because he was a good manager and that is why they stuck with him.
The other argument that sticking with a manager per se will result in league titles is wrong. If it weren’t Dario Gradi, would have been top of the Premiership with Crewe for many years (no disrespect intended). And if Newcastle United had stuck with Graeme Sounness or Glenn Roeder, after how many years would European Cups and League titles automatically appear? A bad manager will still be a bad manager no matter how much time is given. A good manager will achieve things according to their level, given enough time. So the question is how good is Sam Allardyce? Anyone who says Allardyce compares with Sir Alex when he left Aberdeen is clearly wrong. What has he won? Nothing. Aberdeen weren’t a big club so the smallness of Bolton isn’t such a factor. The best that can be said is that Allardyce might be a good manager, but unlikely to be near the top order. I suspect had Newcastle given him time, they would have been a regular 6th to 9th side, just like Bolton were.

Style of play
There is a subtle mistake made when talking about Newcastle fans’ preferred style of football. Yes, they want positive rather than negative, but not necessarily fast flowing, attacking, and reckless football. Positive football is when a team tries to win and win well, by attacking and looking to attack, but also defending as necessary. They don’t (easily) settle for a point and don’t come into the game looking for a draw. Conversely negative football is where the team look to prioritise defending even at the expense of attacking. That team considers a draw a good result.
Of course fans in general like Brazil-Barcelona-Arsenal type of football. Newcastle fans aren’t arrogant enough to think they should be like these teams and not stupid enough to want to lose 4-3 every week. But there is nothing wrong in aspiring to be successful and become like these teams. The suspicion was that Allardyce did not share similar aspirations. The evidence is in the fact he picked and set up his team to achieve a point. He went to the JJB stadium to get a 0-0 playing Wigan. It’s this which really gets to the fans; the lack of ambition. Every game is potentially winnable and should be approached in that manner. And isn’t attack the best for of defence? OK, no one will complain too loudly with a 0-0 ambition when going to Old Trafford, but Allardyce played with this negative attitude even at home. It’s no coincidence that this seasons’ whipping boys Derby County came within a few minutes of getting 6 points from Newcastle United.

Although league position is very important, it can be overlooked to an extent if the team seems to be moving forward. Fans couldn’t understand why he continually played players out of position. NZogbia is probably the most creative player in the team but he’s nothing special defensively. So Allardyce plays him as a make-shift left back; thereby nullifying his strength and highlighting his weakness. Meanwhile, the left-back he bought for £7m is warming the bench. There are other examples; consistently playing Smith in central midfield or the wing when he is really poor in these positions. And Allardyce never explained his reasoning in the media. He arrogantly said he will do things only his way, readily blaming players and injuries for poor results. As for injuries, Newcastle United suffer from them every season as does every other team, that’s what squads are for.

There have been no cups or titles in a generation but there has been relative success. Getting into the Champions’ League is considered a success in these parts. And Newcastle are one of the few teams other than the Big-4 who have done this recently. This was under Sir Bobby Robson’s management. Newcastle finished 11th in each of Bobby’s first two seasons. There was no discontentment from the fans because everyone could see improvements being made and the club progressing. For his third season, Bobby added two players: Laurent Robert and Craig Bellamy. The team thus finished 4th, 3rd and 5th in the next 3 seasons. And also progressing well in the lucrative Champions’ league competition. As he started his last season, he sold right-winger Nolberto Solano to Villa, which then became a difficult position for him to fill effectively. Famously Kieron Dyer refused to play there which bought further disruption to the team. With no effective right-winger the team became unbalanced and the left wing also stopped working effectively. The team started to slide with rumours of acrimony and ill-discipline. Shepherd still shouldn’t have sacked Robson mid-season, and definitely shouldn’t have sacked him only to replace him with the dire Souness.

What to do next
Mid-season is not the best time to be sacking managers –there are less replacements available. It might be better to leave the backroom staff in charge of the first team until the summer (they will probably achieve more then with Allardyce). And use the time to think, ponder, research, talk and select the right manager. Talk to knowledgeable figures at different ends of the game. Fabio Capello and his assistant would be able to give a good assessment. And speak to Gabriele Marcotti, The Times journalist with encyclopaedic knowledge of world football.

Specific weaknesses in Newcastle team need to be addressed by an astute and intelligent coach.
• The team needs to be positionally organised, the players should know the area of the pitch they have to occupy, which runs to make in and out of possession. This is especially true for the defence
• The team needs a winning approach and mentality. The new manager needs to have winning credentials. He needs to be well respected with many years of experience in managing winning teams at several clubs.
• The club need someone who doesn’t look to buy in the first instance but rather the last. The aim should always be to coach the existing players to become better.
This last point a hobby-horse for the aforementioned Gabriele Marcotti who believe managers especially in the English Premiership (much less so on the continent) are too keen to use the cheque book and demand funds before even stepping onto the coaching field.

A selection criterion should be drawn up with minimum honours of a league title and a European trophy. These should have been won with more than one club, to make the transferring of success a less likely issue. Care has to be taken to look past the statistics. For instance, some clubs’ structures are such that the manager has less to do with their success than the director of football. Lyon are such a club, so taking their manager would be of no benefit (see Rangers and Paul Le Guen).

It might be considered that this emphasis on previous honours and astute coaching skills may raise the bar too high for Newcastle United. However, a manager exceeding this criterion was touting for the Newcastle job before Allardyce was appointed and Shepherd foolishly turned him down. His name is Sven Goran Eriksson. And what has he done since?
Jose Mourinho and Marcello Lippi would also meet the requirements, but Newcastle are probably too low profile for them.
Ottmar Hitzfeld has a fantastic record and he will be available in the summer (league titles with 3 different teams and European Champions League with 2 different teams).
Similarly, Louis van Gaal started a revolution at Ajax leading to many years of fantastic success. But he is contracted to 2010 and may not want to move.

It would be a mistake and extreme folly to appoint: Shearer (no experience), Jol (massive and visible improvement in Tottenham after Jaunde Ramos succeeded him), Venebles, O’Learly, Houllier, McClaren or Bruce.
Newcastle will probably employ someone without looking for past managerial honours, and another déjà vu in 18 months time.